Did Maverick Vinales make a mistake when he bought Ducati …

Seven races in the season and you could say that things were a little too “nice-nice” in the 2021 MotoGP World Championship. Where’s the drama? Where is the controversy? Get on, Maverick Vinales.

A promo aired on Friday for an interview he did with DAZN suggesting leaving Yamaha at the end of the 2020 MotoGP season, adding that he would not make the “mistake” again.

The words imply that he should have accepted a tempting offer from Ducati to join the team for 2021 instead of staying at Yamaha, where he has shown a title-winning pace … mixed with bewildering poor performances.

But is Vinales right to believe that he would have a very different experience with Ducati? At least this is a definite change of tone for him. It is also risky to reflect responsibility for your own results on a team you have under contract for an additional 18 months.

On the subject of matching items

In short, he wouldn’t do this without feeling justified. The Spaniard isn’t known for being the most open-minded driver on the grid, but he’s one who has been courting a sizable amount of attention for all the wrong reasons, which ironically runs counter to a résumé that is on paper very much impressive.

After all, he’s a rider with eight MotoGP wins who beat the mighty Marc Marquez in straight fights and has done a lot of the business for Yamaha in recent years compared to his one-time attention-grabbing teammate Valentino Rossi.

On the subject of matching items

But it is precisely these factors that serve to sharpen the focus on the negative, namely an at best inconsistent, at worst inexplicable form book.

For every win – including one at the top of the season, let’s not forget – there are several races in which Vinales not simply missed the pace, but apparently started in a completely different race.

It is certainly strange for a rider on a motorcycle who is clearly well versed in being too – tough – not deserving of the best in the world not to deserve the machine beneath him.

Furthermore, if this were from event to event on different routes with different characteristics, there would be a pattern, but it is not. He was quick in practice and qualifying – including the race simulations – only to be almost irrelevant at the business end of a race. He won from pole position in Misano in 2020, but was far off the following weekend in the same place under the same conditions.

Many have tried to decipher this riddle – not least the man himself – and the pressure to explain something he cannot have meant that he often sat in press conferences and media talks and clearly put on the weight of the world and its solar system his shoulders.

But then Vinales persistently searched within himself to find an answer and even went the way of psychology to work it out.

Which makes this interview so interesting that – with very carefully chosen words – he shifts the responsibility onto Yamaha. He doesn’t blame Yamaha per se, but he does get the impression that the manufacturer is not doing what it needs to be done to regain that consistency, a factor added this week by the announcement of its second new Crew Chief has come to the fore in just as many years, following Yamaha’s dictation.

In a way, Vinales is right to shed some responsibility and return it to Yamaha.

After the Italian spent four years outperforming Rossi on a motorcycle still largely dictated by his input, the Italian’s exit at the end of last season should have moved him up the hierarchy.

However, with new teammate Fabio Quartararo showing so much potential as Yamaha’s next big (slightly coincidental) advantage, he was already threatened with becoming a support act even before the Frenchman won three of the first six races. From that point of view, the end of his contract looks very distant.

Should Maverick Vinales have switched to Ducati instead?

Whether Vinales was wrong when he turned down Ducati is something you need to consider why and when.

His current contract was announced in January 2020, shortly afterwards it was confirmed that Fabio Quartararo – who was also approached by Ducati – would replace Valentino Rossi in the works squad.

It’s no secret in the paddock that many believe that Vinales’ best chance of stardom – in theory – would come with Ducati, as the Desmosedici requires a special approach to setup that requires a smoother, more delicate hand.

It’s a trait Vinales abounds and explains why – in his day – he is likely the only rider capable of beating Marc Marquez in a straight fight at best before the injury.

But it is dictated by what appears to be a tightening peak operating window, dictated by too many factors from the track, to the tires, to the conditions. The Yamaha works best when pushed right at the apex of corners, but Vinales with his more fluid approach allows him to maximize the M1 on tracks like Assen. The arrival of Quartararo with its sharp precision no matter where it is, underscores that Vinales is increasingly unable to get the most out of the M1

Furthermore, development with Quartararo will clearly only move further away from Vinales in Yamaha’s future with no improvement in its results imminent.

So yeah, Vinales probably made a mistake by not accepting an offer from Ducati … in hindsight.

If it was November 2019 again, it’s hard to see why he would have made a different decision. In fact, the Italian company offered fewer customization guarantees, just ask Valentino Rossi and Jorge Lorenzo.

It must be noted that the signature came early at the end of the 2019 season, at a time when Vinales was quick and more consistent than perhaps at any other point in his career.

Nonetheless, this interview is understood as a call to initiate discussions for 2023, and the timing is no coincidence.

Ducati – fresh from signing its headline riders for 2022 – states that it doesn’t necessarily need the “big signing” to be successful, as its current up-and-coming protege range of Jack Miller and Pecco Bagnaia shows all the signs who might have finally stumbled upon the winning formula almost by accident.

For this reason, if Vinales leaves it to Miller and Bagnaia any longer to really cement their future with Ducati, then there won’t be a knock on its door at all.

2021 is not over yet. 2022 has not started yet. But the fight for the title in 2023 was only just getting under the starting number.