Now that it is certain that Marquez will return to his Honda after a nine month absence, the next question is how long it will take to get back to the level he has made us used to in recent years. Of course, nobody knows the answer, not even the person concerned. It’s true that Marc has ridden an RC213V-S (Honda’s MotoGP street motorcycle) in both Barcelona and Portimao for the past few weeks, but doing 50 or 60 laps in a day on a solo test is one thing . another to throw oneself into the fray on a vehicle that demands a lot of the physique and in the midst of all the other drivers. Also because each of them wants to prove that they can win on the track with the Dominator of recent years.
So let’s proceed for the sake of reasoning, but let’s rely on data. First and foremost, Marc will return to win, as he has always done throughout his career, even after difficult moments (such as his ambiguity in the days of Moto2) so we need to find out when he will be successful. In Portimao he will start with two disadvantages: that he has not ridden a MotoGP motorcycle for many months and has never done so on the Portuguese circuit, unlike his rivals. In short, the journey starts uphill, but this is where Marquez usually goes down well. Besides, it’s a long way Only two races have been held and in terms of the ranking it is not in a bad position.
In fact, Johann Zarco is in the lead with 40 points. The Frenchman from Pramac is theoretically not one of the favorites for the final victory and is on the road in a satellite team. The situation is different for Quartararo and Vinales, who are tied for second place with 36 points, while Bagnaia has 26. The reigning champion Mir has 22 and runner-up Morbidelli only 4 points, are worse off. So the raw data says there’s room for a comeback.
If you then analyze the seasons in which Marquez won the title, you can see that he has only managed to go online a few times: in 2010 in the 125cc and in 2013 in MotoGP, his debut season in the premier class.
Needless to say, in all of these cases he started the season regularly, did all the tests, and so on. The truth is, there is no memory of such a long injury-related absence in the history of the World Cup, so it’s hard to understand what to expect. But it is just as true that in the history of the World Cup there has rarely been a talent of Marc’s caliber, so anything is possible. Even a comeback on the verge of reality, but with lots of “ifs” and “buts”.
Because the health situation in the world is still critical and the fact that there were no problems in the first races does not mean that there will not be any in the future. Even so, Dorna is confident of at least 18 races this year, which would mean Marquez had 16 races left. However, these are not the only unknown factors and two of the major hot tires and RC213V. The new Michelin rear tire caused major problems for several drivers last season and the Spanish champion was unable to assess it on many circuits. Plus, his Honda has changed over the past few months (although the fact that he couldn’t modify the engine certainly helps) and Marquez will have to dial in again.
The good news is that we only have to wait a few days for the first answers.