They say there is a long way to go if you want rock and roll, for some more than others. In sport – and this is no exception when it comes to motorcycling – you always see the results at the end of the day and there are three riders who hope to be able to overturn a situation that sometimes seems desperate. They are the winners of the last two GPs: Bagnaia, Fernandez and Foggia, all three who took consecutive victories in Aragon and Misano, all three second in the championship in their respective classes.
With four races remaining until the end of the championship, Pecco is in the most difficult position. With a 48-point lead, Quartararo could afford to settle for the lowest step of the podium at any GP, even if the Ducati rider wins it. Bagnaia knows it well: “It’s not up to me if Fabio has to make a mistake,” he said of his situation. But this year the Frenchman has never made a mistake in the race, on the contrary, he is the only driver who has never scored any points at the finish. He missed the podium only 5 times in 14 races: in Qatar, in Jerez (because of his compartment syndrome problem), in Barcelona (because of his leather problem), at the second GP at the Red Bull Ring (with the flag to-Flag), in Aragon (due to a tire pressure problem).
So Bagnaia has to win and hope. For some ‘goal crashers’ who get between him and Quartararo (e.g. Marquez or the Suzuki drivers) or his brand colleagues. The problem, however, is that the other Ducati riders often failed to finish ahead of Quartararo. Miller has only made it four times, just like Zarco, who at that moment seems to have disappeared after the good first half of the season (also with his arm problems). Martin and Bastianini are improving, but both are rookies, with all the limitations of the enclosure. So Pecco finds himself alone, with luck as the only possible ally, if he decides to analyze things from his point of view.
Of the three, Raul has the greatest chance of closing the gap because he has the smallest: 34 points. On the other hand, however, there is a Gardner who, like Quartararo, has not even scored a zero in the overall standings, in contrast to the two of his teammates. Remy knows how to use his head and has proven it in the last two races as well, with just as many second places that are worth gold for the championship.
However, Moto2 has many riders who are able to get between the two competitors and become involuntary tiebreakers. Bezzecchi, Lowes, Di Giannantonio have already won this year, Canet was close, Augusto Fernandez was on the podium so the variables are bigger than in MotoGP and this is undoubtedly the most open championship on paper.
However, as we transition to Moto3, the predictions get a little more complicated. Mathematically, the situation at Foggia is similar to Bagnaia: 42 points are a difficult gap to bridge, but rookie Acosta is not exactly a prime example of consistency and was even on the podium 6 times, including 5 wins. Dennis, on the other hand, has been a steamroller since Mugello: with 4 wins and 7 podiums in 9 races.
There’s no point in regretting the zeros of the beginning of the year now even the Leopard rider (like Pecco) just has to remember to continue this way, knowing that Moto3 is the realm of uncertainty. There can be a lot of surprises in every GP and in group races mistakes and problems are always around the corner. Not to mention that Garcia has the same points as Dennis, so the world championship match will be played between three drivers.
The only thing that matters for the pursuers is to get to the top without a mistake, which is easy to say and yet difficult to do. After the Austin GP, we’ll find out if they can still have hope …