Some of us predicted it before the start of the season – Fabio Quartararo will struggle to retain his MotoGP crown in the face of an Italian V4 onslaught: eight Ducati Desmosedicis and two Aprilia RS-GPs.
The 23-year-old Frenchman has been riding out of his skin this year, even more so than last, achieving results that shouldn’t be possible (just look at what his fellow Yamaha riders are doing) to lead the championship, but the signs are that the V4 threat from Aprilia is growing. And Quartararo knows it.
“When we arrive at a track on Friday we are fast, because our bike is really similar to previous years,” he said after finishing a grim eighth last time out at Silverstone, thanks in part to a long-lap penalty. “But the more races they do the more they understand their bikes.”
Quartararo was caught in the pack at Silverstone, just where he doesn’t want to be, because in that situation he can’t use his inline-four YZR-M1’s superior corner speed and because his tires overheat.
Red Bull Ring’s new right/left chicane, installed just before the track’s former Turn Two, which may help or hinder Quartararo this weekend.
Red Bull Ring
“The rear tire got so hot, plus I ride totally different to the others, so overtaking was a nightmare,” he added at Silverstone.
At least he got a good look at the mostly V4 opposition, including Aleix Espargaró’s Aprilia, currently 22 points behind him.
“They have top speed, acceleration, rear grip… a lot of things that we don’t have. But I prefer not to talk too much about this. The main thing for us is to stay focused and not to look at our negative points, because we can’t improve them this year.”
This has been Quartararo’s psyche for the last two seasons: make the most of it when things go your way and limit the damage when they don’t, because throwing your toys out of the pram doesn’t get you any championship points.
This week MotoGP moves to Red Bull Ring, a V4-friendly drag strip, where last year Quartararo somehow managed to finish third, winning a battle with the Ducatis of Johann Zarco and Jack Miller, who crashed trying to stay with him.
Quartararo fought Márquez for the win last time at Buriram, in 2019. This year he’ll have the much-improved Aprilia and Ducati to deal with
Petronas SRT
Crunching some recent top-speed numbers suggests that he may not be out of the podium fight on Sunday either. This year at COTA, Le Mans and Mugello – circuits that also feature slow-ish corners that lead onto fast straights – Yamaha has slightly reduced the M1’s top-speed deficit compared to last season.
And then there’s the question mark of the new chicane, installed before the track’s super-fast former Turn 2, to improve safety on the way into the former Turn 3. Will this benefit or damage Quartararo’s chances?
The right/left chicane is a dead-stop chicane, a bit like the chicane that leads onto Aragon’s back straight. So it’s not somewhere he’ll be able to really exploit his corner-speed advantage. Also, the chicane adds an extra braking and acceleration zone, where V4s are traditionally stronger. Therefore, in theory at least, this could be bad for the Yamaha, but the science of motorcycle racing is a strange business, so you never know till you get there.