In a way, it is a shame the race in which Fabio Quartararo produced perhaps his best MotoGP performance in months, is the one that has all but ended his chances of defending his world title.
Starting Sunday’s Malaysian GP at Sepang 12th on the grid, with a finger he had fractured just a day before in practice, and at a circuit that really doesn’t suit his Yamaha in the way that it does other bikes, the third place finish the Frenchman ultimately secured was little short of incredible.
In the end though, it looks as though that will be in vain, with Pecco Bagnaia’s victory over the weekend, giving him a 23-point lead going into the final round of the season in Valencia in just under two weeks’ time.
That means the Ducati rider needs to only finish in the top 14 in that season finale to take the title away from Quartararo, and while not guaranteed, the fact he has finished on the podium in eight of the last nine races, means it is hard to imagine Bagnaia will not be a MotoGP world champion a fortnight from now.
For Quartararo, who for so much of this season looked odds on to defend his title, the collapse he has endured over the last few months to cost him the Championship will be incredibly hard to take, not least because there appears a general acceptance among observers that it is the shortcomings of his Yamaha, rather than of the rider himself, that have all but ended his hopes of a second straight world title.
Worryingly for the 23-year-old however, it is difficult to imagine it becoming any easier for him to regain his title in 2023 or beyond, with things instead looking as though they will become even harder.
A big issue for Yamaha this season has been the lack of developments made to Quartararo’s bike in comparison to their rivals.
That is a problem that only looks set to grow from next year, when they will lose their RNF satellite team, meaning instead of having four bikes and riders to gather data and insight from, they will have only two, including Quartararo, from which to learn from and improve the Frenchman’s bike.
Given the other factory Yamaha will once again be in the hands of Franco Morbidelli, who this season has managed just one top ten finish – seventh in a weather-affected round two in Indonesia – it is also unlikely that Quartararo will be able to get sort of help and support on and off track that Bagnaia has received from the vast armada of other Ducati riders at times this season.
Meanwhile, not only will the departure of the RNF team weaken Yamaha, it will also strengthen one of their rivals, as they link up with Aprilia, a move that ought to aid their development, after a season that has seen the Italian factory emerge as a title contender in their own right already, with a number of podiums and Aleix Espargaro’s first MotoGP win back in Argentina.
As has already been mentioned, Ducati’s strength in numbers – they will again have eight bikes on the grid next year, four more than any other team – will once again make them the ones to beat.
Bagnaia will no doubt be desperate to defend the title that – barring a catastrophe of epic proportions – he should win in Valencia, and the form he has ended this season in means he should go into 2023 with plenty of momentum.
He will also be joined in Ducati’s top team by Enea Bastianini, who after four race wins on satellite machinery in 2022, should be another big challenger for the title next season.
Then of course, there is Marc Marquez. Having been dogged by injuries since the huge crash he suffered during the opening race of the 2020, next year will be the first time the Honda rider starts a season with a hope of being fully fit for all of it, since he won his sixth MotoGP title in 2019.
Considering the form he has shown since making his latest comeback from injury in the last five races suggests he has lost little of his ability and desire to push his bike to the limit.
That is already translating into results as well, with three straight top five finishes, including a podium in Australia, followed up by a front row start and seventh place finish in Malaysia at the weekend, in a race where Marquez backed himself to finish in the top ten at best, meaning there will surely be more to come from in 2023, providing he stays fit while refreshing over the winter.
It seems, therefore, that while the position Yamaha – and by extension Quartararo – is being weakened heading into 2023, those big rivals he is up against are all becoming stronger.
As a result, given he signed a new contract extension with Yamaha until the end of the 2024 season earlier this year, you can’t help but fear that Quartararo may be about to endure a long two years.
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