Why Sebastian Vettel’s Japanese GP drive was even better than you thought

Two multiple world champions, battling like they were teenage karters and split by less than the blink of an eye at the flag: no wonder it brought roars of appreciation from the grandstands.

Sebastian Vettel prevailing against Fernando Alonso capped a joyous Japanese Grand Prix weekend for the retiring four-time champion who was saying his goodbyes to Suzuka.

After setting a qualifying time (below) that would put him ninth on the grid, he toured the circuit, waved to fans and radioed in: “This circuit is so much better than the other ones”.

Close-up of Sebastian Vettel in the cockpit of his Aston Martin on track in qualifying for the Japanese GP

But Sunday would bring an even more apt farewell, as Vettel raced Alonso to the line, pipping his old adversary to sixth place by 11-hundredths of a second.

Spinning alongside Alonso at the start proved to be a blessing in disguise. With less to lose, he made a bold gambit to switch to intermediate tires early, which proved the right choice at the right time and vaulted Vettel towards the front of the pack.

It wasn’t just a lucky break. His race data, laid out below, reveals how he extracted strong pace from the Aston Martin, coaxed longevity from the tyres, and showed his mettle as he held off a charging Alonso.

Vettel’s qualifying

Charter 1 Q2 Run Compared to Ricciardo

2022 Japanese GP Ricciardo and Vettel sector times

Vettel only just made it through Q1 after a sluggish run, but then hooked up a blinding lap to edge himself into his first Q3 appearance since Baku this year – beating Daniel Ricciardo by a mere 0.003sec

Sebastian Vettel approaches the hairpin at Suzuka during the 2022 Japanese GP weekend

The McLaren was faster on the majority of the track but the green sections in the graphic above show where Vettel was able to find more performance than Ricciardo: in the technical esses, hairpin (right) and spoon corner to keep himself in contention.

But it was his strong exit out of the final chicane that Vettel set up for a strong run to the finish line that had him qualify into Q3. The end result was a starting grid position of P9.

Pit stops shake up the positions

chart 2 Race lap chart

Race lap chart for 2022 Japanese GP

Vettel’s ninth-place grid spot put him in a prime position to challenge for points, but that hope seemed to evaporate in the mass of spray at the start.

He drifted too far to the outer extremities of the track, which invited a spin into the gravel after a prang with Alonso, and Vettel tumbled down the order, only remaining ahead of other drivers who had suffered their own mishaps on the opening lap, namely Carlos Sainz, Alex Albon, Zhou Guanyu, and Pierre Gasly.

Not the start Sebastian Vettel would have wanted 😞 pic.twitter.com/EZDosBokYd

— Sky Sports F1 (@SkySportsF1) October 9, 2022

While it appeared that the spin had shredded all of Vettel’s prior good work, a strategic call would reignite the German’s campaign for a fitting farewell to the Suzuka circuit.

Early stoppers secure huge advantages

Chapter 3 Tire strategy summary

Tire strategy graph for 2022 Japanese GP

After the red flag caused by Sainz’s off on the first lap and the ensuing safety car period as the track dried, Vettel was first to come into the pits for a new set of intermediate tires, alongside Nicholas Latifi at the restart.

It was a gamble born out of necessity and circumstance. After having fallen to the back of the order, Vettel had nothing to lose in rolling the dice for an advantage with the intermediate tyre.

His odds were always going to be good: the extreme wets are a nuanced tire that only work optimally in a narrow window of conditions, and indeed the stop proved highly successful.

Vettel leapfrogs Alonso

Chapter 4 Pit stop gain and loss

Vettel Alonso pit stop battle

Despite falling behind Alonso by over 16 seconds on lap 4, as the safety car continued to circulate, Vettel and Aston Martin’s quick thinking was able to net them an almost 20-second advantage over their competition, putting the German ahead of his lap 1 rival .

It was a classic case of being on the right tire at the right time. Even though others responded quickly, the damage had been done and the preference for track position had been superseded by the benefits of visibility and grip.

But would Vettel be able to hold on?

Japanese Grand Prix story

Chapter 5 Cumulative delta plot

Cumulative delta graph for Japanese GP

Vettel left the pitlane side by side with Latifi, got the better of the Williams heading into Turn 1, and blasted away with great pace.

This early advantage was short-lived, as Alonso quickly switched to the correct tyre, but while the Spaniard was close to Vettel, overtaking was no simple task, and the Alpine driver spent a considerable portion of the race staring at the German’s gearbox.

See how the solid pink line of Alonso locks on to the dark green line of Vettel at around lap 11 in the graph above. The cumulative delta chart plots the average lap time for each driver as the race progresses, shown against a 1min 50sec baseline, so those of Vettel and Alonso converge as they run together on the track.